Alien Invasion
Scenario one is an alien invasion and there's little that I can say about this that isn't wild speculation. In a field where
it's foolhardy to make assumptions (I've often heard ufologists make bold statements beginning with phrases such as
"well, aliens wouldn't do that because ...") one of the few logical assumptions we can legitimately make is that any
extraterrestrials visiting Earth will have a more advanced technology than ours, on the basis that they will have viable
interstellar travel, whereas our space programme is in its infancy. Despite the odds, it's in our nature to fight and I
speculated what might happen in my my two science fiction novels, Operation Thunder Child and Operation Lightning
Strike - the only sci-fi novels ever to have needed government clearance prior to publication. Incidentally, in October
2007, US Presidential candidate Rudolph Giuliani was asked by an 8 year old boy how the US would respond if it did
ever encounter hostile extraterrestrials. He said that the US would deal with the situation, but he was clearly
unprepared for the question and had no real idea what to say. Go to You Tube and put the two words "Giuliani" and
"alien" into the search box, if you want to watch the exchange.
Scenario one is an alien invasion and there's little that I can say about this that isn't wild speculation. In a field where
it's foolhardy to make assumptions (I've often heard ufologists make bold statements beginning with phrases such as
"well, aliens wouldn't do that because ...") one of the few logical assumptions we can legitimately make is that any
extraterrestrials visiting Earth will have a more advanced technology than ours, on the basis that they will have viable
interstellar travel, whereas our space programme is in its infancy. Despite the odds, it's in our nature to fight and I
speculated what might happen in my my two science fiction novels, Operation Thunder Child and Operation Lightning
Strike - the only sci-fi novels ever to have needed government clearance prior to publication. Incidentally, in October
2007, US Presidential candidate Rudolph Giuliani was asked by an 8 year old boy how the US would respond if it did
ever encounter hostile extraterrestrials. He said that the US would deal with the situation, but he was clearly
unprepared for the question and had no real idea what to say. Go to You Tube and put the two words "Giuliani" and
"alien" into the search box, if you want to watch the exchange.
IF ROSWELL HAPPENED TODAY (Part 1) by Nick Pope
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Introduction
One of the questions I'm most frequently asked is what the MoD would do if a UFO crashed (or indeed landed) in the
UK. Is there a plan? Who would be involved? Would the government try to cover it up? In this two-part article I'll be
setting out the issues and - hopefully - fuelling some discussion and debate. In relation to the issue of genuine
extraterrestrial contact, there are a range of scenarios that could arise. These fall into four broad categories and I
shall deal with the first three relatively quickly, before focusing on the idea of a UFO crash, as this latter concept -
largely due to Roswell - is so embedded in the minds of the UFO community.
One of the questions I'm most frequently asked is what the MoD would do if a UFO crashed (or indeed landed) in the
UK. Is there a plan? Who would be involved? Would the government try to cover it up? In this two-part article I'll be
setting out the issues and - hopefully - fuelling some discussion and debate. In relation to the issue of genuine
extraterrestrial contact, there are a range of scenarios that could arise. These fall into four broad categories and I
shall deal with the first three relatively quickly, before focusing on the idea of a UFO crash, as this latter concept -
largely due to Roswell - is so embedded in the minds of the UFO community.
NICK POPE used to run
the British Government's
UFO project at the
Ministry of Defence.
Initially sceptical, his
research and
investigation into the UFO
phenomenon and access
to formerly classified
government files on the
subject soon convinced
him that the
phenomenon raised
important defence and
national security issues,
especially when the
witnesses were military
pilots or where UFOs were
tracked on radar.
Nick also looked into
other mysteries such as
alien abductions, crop
circles and ghosts. He
now continues his
research in a private
capacity and is recognised
as a leading authority on
UFOs and the
unexplained. He does
extensive media work,
lectures all around the
world and has acted as
consultant on numerous
television documentaries.
His website is
nickpope.net.
the British Government's
UFO project at the
Ministry of Defence.
Initially sceptical, his
research and
investigation into the UFO
phenomenon and access
to formerly classified
government files on the
subject soon convinced
him that the
phenomenon raised
important defence and
national security issues,
especially when the
witnesses were military
pilots or where UFOs were
tracked on radar.
Nick also looked into
other mysteries such as
alien abductions, crop
circles and ghosts. He
now continues his
research in a private
capacity and is recognised
as a leading authority on
UFOs and the
unexplained. He does
extensive media work,
lectures all around the
world and has acted as
consultant on numerous
television documentaries.
His website is
nickpope.net.
The Journal of Frontier
Science is looking for
intelligent, informed,
talented Writer-
Researchers in the
fields of:
furthering the study of
Ufology.
JFS is an excellent
format for publishing
your own research for
peer review and
education purposes.
See the Submissions
page for information!
Science is looking for
intelligent, informed,
talented Writer-
Researchers in the
fields of:
- Ufology
- The Paranormal
- Cryptozoology
- Parapsychology
- Etc.
furthering the study of
Ufology.
JFS is an excellent
format for publishing
your own research for
peer review and
education purposes.
See the Submissions
page for information!
| Copyright © 2009 JFS |
Benign First Contact
Scenario two is almost as speculative as scenario one, so
again, there's little one can say. As with scenario one, the
reasonable assumption is that if 'they' discover you, 'they'
are your technological superiors. This is one of the more
interesting concepts in a paper entitled "UFO Hypothesis and
Survival Questions", which can be found on the NSA website
and which explores some of these speculative issues about
contact with extraterrestrials. Suffice to say, given that
visiting extraterrestrials are likely to be our technological
superiors, it's more likely than not that they would set the
agenda. Needless to say, it's to be hoped that benign first
contact would include exchanges of information that might
lead to our acquiring considerable scientific knowledge and
technology.
Scenario two is almost as speculative as scenario one, so
again, there's little one can say. As with scenario one, the
reasonable assumption is that if 'they' discover you, 'they'
are your technological superiors. This is one of the more
interesting concepts in a paper entitled "UFO Hypothesis and
Survival Questions", which can be found on the NSA website
and which explores some of these speculative issues about
contact with extraterrestrials. Suffice to say, given that
visiting extraterrestrials are likely to be our technological
superiors, it's more likely than not that they would set the
agenda. Needless to say, it's to be hoped that benign first
contact would include exchanges of information that might
lead to our acquiring considerable scientific knowledge and
technology.
Scenario three is the detection of a signal by means of radio astronomy. The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence
(SETI) community is an active one and indeed 11 October 2007 was inauguration day for the Allen Telescope Array,
which the SETI Institute believes will "shift SETI into third gear". Even that pales into insignificance when compared to
the power of the Square Kilometer Array (SKA), where construction is scheduled to begin in 2011, with the facility
fully operational by 2020. Many in the SETI community believe that if there are civilizations using radio anywhere
within 100 light years of Earth, SKA will be able to detect them. I often wish that the UFO community and the SETI
community got along better. It seems to me that you want the same thing and that the only thing that sets you
apart is your methodology. Like it or not, SETI is going from strength to strength and I've said before that I think it
far more likely that proof that we're not alone will come from the SETI community rather than from ufologists. As to
what would happen if a signal was found, a "Post-Detection SETI Protocol" has been drafted by the International
Academy of Astronautics. While not legally binding, it's probably the best available guide to how the scientific
community should respond and what issues are likely to arise. A quick Google search will turn up the document.
UFO Crash
Our fourth and final scenario is the idea of a UFO crash. Of course, there will be those who say that this has already
happened, in places such as the Berwyn Mountains, Cannock Chase or even the Llandegla Moors near Wrexham.
Personally, I do not find the evidence for such British UFO crashes compelling, though as ever, I try to keep an open
mind. Returning to our scenario, again, there are many variables. But we have to start somewhere, so let's take a
hypothetical situation and run with it. Let's suppose that a UFO crashes in a remote part of the UK. The first question
is, would there be any witnesses? Even when aircraft crash in remote areas, TV news reports almost invariably turn
up a witness who saw - or at least heard - something, so the chances are, it would be noticed. As with Roswell, it's
statistically likely that the first witness or witnesses would be members of the public. The next question is, who are
they going to call? Despite the UFO community's focus on the MoD, people's basic instinct will be to call the police and
- if they think an aircraft has crashed - the other emergency services.
The Police
It's likely that the police will be first responders and again, there are all sorts of variables. It may be that they are
confronted by a debris field of unidentifiable wreckage, or it may be that a more obvious craft is recognisable.
Dependant upon what it looks like (and on issues such as whether any extraterrestrial entities - dead or alive - are
found) they may assume it's an alien spacecraft, or a terrestrial satellite, aircraft or UAV. In either event, their first
action should be to cordon off the site and treat it as a crime scene. Follow up actions will include locating and
interviewing witnesses, and recovering and analyzing evidence. They may decide to call in the Ministry of Defence
Police or the Service (i.e. military) Police, but the local Chief Constable would have primacy, even if others had
jurisdiction.
MoD and the Military
Notwithstanding the Chief Constable's jurisdiction and primacy, he or she would probably, sooner rather than later,
decide to call in the MoD and the military. Military Aid to the Civil Authorities (MACA) is often requested at times of
national crisis or when large numbers of trained, disciplined people are required. MACA has taken place in the
aftermath of floods, the Lockerbie disaster, the foot and mouth disease outbreak and the fuel crisis, to name just a
few incidents. For those that want to do further research into this, a number of publications are available. "Military Aid
to the Civil Community in the UK - a pamphlet for the guidance of Civil Authorities and Organisations" - the so-called
Blue Book - is available from HMSO. "MACA in UK in Peace" is an internal MoD document sometimes referred to as the
Green Book. Finally, there is a Home Office publication entitled "Dealing with Disaster", that provides the framework
within which the more detailed plans of the emergency services, local authorities and other organisations are normally
prepared. All of these documents provide some clues as to how a UFO crash might be handled, as does the Standard
Operating Procedure (SOP) for an aircraft crash. In other words, while there's no specific plan for a UFO crash, there
are plans and processes that could quickly be adapted. But will "quickly" be good enough?
Biohazard
The biggest single issue that might arise is a potential biological hazard. In "The War of the Worlds", terrestrial
microbes prove deadly to the invading Martians. In reality, the potential hazard is just as likely to work in reverse. The
police would automatically cordon the crash site, because this is an action that would spring automatically from their
training, but would they think to test for a biohazard or take any actions to mitigate the risk? This is less clear. Of
course, the MoD has various equipment and specialists that can help with detection and decontamination. Readers
may recall seeing television reports of a recent exercise designed to test the response to a chemical or biological
terrorist attack on the London Underground. But in all of this, timing is critical and if nobody thinks to call such
equipment and personnel to the site of a UFO crash immediately, vital time is lost and the chances of containing a
biohazard diminish rapidly. Faced with an extraterrestrial bacteria or virus against which we would have no defence,
the worst case scenario is nothing short of the death of every living organism on the face of our planet. If such a
disease was seen to be spreading out from the crash site, a British Prime Minister may have to consider using any
means available - including the use of nuclear weapons - to completely sterilize the area. This is why the lack of a
dedicated plan for a UFO crash exposes us to a critical risk. However unlikely you think it is, there should be a plan.
Using the language of risk assessment, this is the ultimate Low Probability/High Consequence (sometimes known as
Low Probability/High Impact) event.
Enemy Attack and the UFO Potential
One honourable exception to the notion that there isn't a plan for this sort of thing is the second edition of the book
"Fire Officer's Guide to Disaster Control", by William M. Kramer and Charles W. Bahme. Chapter 13 is entitled "Enemy
Attack and the UFO Potential" and if readers Google that phrase, they'll be able to read the text. Again, it gives an
insight into some of the issues that may arise and some of the ways in which a UFO crash might be dealt with.
Incidentally, before anyone wonders, I have deliberately not mentioned Project Moon Dust or Project Blue Fly so far.
While many ufologists believe such projects relate to the recovery of crashed or downed UFOs, I believe they were set
up to ensure the timely recovery of decidedly more terrestrial (e.g. Soviet) hardware. Be that as it may, I have
decided that these matters are outside the scope of this article, though some pertinent issues arise.
COBRA
Another key player in our unfolding scenario is COBRA. This is the Civil Contingencies Committee, which takes its
name from the room where it meets, Cabinet Office Briefing Room A, in Downing Street. COBRA met in the aftermath
of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the 7/7 attack and many other national emergencies. Attendees would vary according to
the nature of the crisis, but might include the Prime Minister, senior government ministers, police and intelligence
chiefs. The secretariat function is provided by civil servants in the Cabinet Office - the department that co-ordinates
action when a situation involves several government departments. One issue the committee could consider is whether
to invoke powers in Part Two of the Civil Contingencies Act, which gives considerable extra powers at the time of a
serious emergency. Under such powers, Parliament can be suspended, freedom of movement limited, property
requisitioned or destroyed. Again, a Google search on terms such as COBRA, Civil Contingencies Committee and Civil
Contingencies Act will reveal much interesting and relevant information.
Next Steps
Numerous other issues arise, many of which relate to MoD's handling of the issue. Because while the Cabinet Office
and COBRA would doubtless take a co-ordinating role, MoD (not least by virtue of having responsibility for policy on
UFOs and investigation of sightings) would quickly emerge as the lead department. Questions that would need to be
handled range from what to tell Ministers, through to how to handle the media. What would Parliament be told? And
critically, for conspiracy theorists, would there be any attempt to cover up such an incident? Could it be done and
what would the reason be for such an action? All this and more will be revealed in Part 2 of this article.
| TODAY IS |
